Ambiguous Trends in the Regional Labor Market During the Ongoing Sanctions Policy

Abstract

As a follow up study, the authors present the results of an assessment of very ambiguous trends in the regional labor market that have developed as a result of the extension of the sanctions policy. Along with the achievement of a record low level of unemployment, the formation of additional demand in the labor market, there are obvious disproportions in the dynamics of the socio-economic development of enterprises and organizations in the region. Meanwhile, an assessment of the emerging socio-economic situation showed the presence of a whole range of negative risks of destabilization, which may have adverse consequences for the functioning of the labor market in the medium term. The article highlights the structural imbalances that create unsatisfied demand, identifies conditions that can reduce the demand for labor due to structural inconsistencies, and analyzes the potential scale of the emerging excess labor supply. The study revealed that the starting points of bifurcation in the labor market will be associated with unfavorable trends in the demographics of organizations in the region. Disproportions in the dynamics of industrial production indices in the most important sectors of the economy are identified. We established that over the past year since the introduction of sanctions, there has been an increase in the share of unprofitable enterprises and organizations. The presented trends made it possible to identify the trajectories of the possible development of the labor market in the near future.