Ambient air pollution, temperature and kawasaki disease in Shanghai, China

Abstract

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a kind of pediatric vasculitis of unknown etiology which mainly affects the development of coronary artery aneurysms. Few studies have explored the potential environmental risk factors on KD incidence. We performed a time-series analysis to investigate the associations between air pollution and temperature and KD in Shanghai, China. We collected daily-hospitalized KD patients that were admitted in major pediatric specialty hospitals located in the urban areas of Shanghai from 2001 to 2010. The over-dispersed generalized additive model was used to estimate the effects of air pollutants on KD incidence on each day. Then, this model was combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the cumulative effects of temperature over a week. There were positive but statistically insignificant associations between three major air pollutants and KD incidence. The association between daily mean temperature and KD was generally J-shaped with higher risks on hot days. The cumulative relative risk of KD at extreme hot temperature (99th percentile, 32.4 °C) over a week was 1.91 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13, 3.23], compared with the referent temperature (10.0 °C). This study suggested that a short-term exposure to high temperature may significantly increase the incidence of KD, and the evidence linking air pollution and KD incidence was limited.