Alzheimer’s Disease: A Washing Machine on the Fritz

Abstract

A mathematical model has been developed to numerically model the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease and Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE) as a person ages. The model was programmed in Excel to provide a working prototype computer simulation model. The model provides estimates of the cumulative risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease and CTE as age increases. A one-year step size was used. The model has two major parts: one predicts changes in slow-wave sleep as a person ages and the second component adjusts the flushing efficiency of waste products from the brain. The two components work together and interact to lower the flushing of waste components as age increases. The development of the model provides an overview of how the various factors work together that lead to the onset of Alzheimer’s disease and the associated CTE. Calibration of the coefficients in the model is based on published data sets presented in the literature. Further research and refinement of calibration coefficients should be explored.