ALTERNATIVE VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES AND FUELS IN SCENARIOS FOR ATMOSPHERIC EMISSIONS IN LONDON

Abstract

Alternative fuels and vehicle technologies for road transport are receiving increasing support as a result of climate change mitigation policies and local air quality regulations. This study attempts to estimate the emission reductions of major air pollutants (NOx, PM, HC and CO 2) that might be expected from the introduction of alternative fuels and technologies in London by the year 2020. A number of alternative scenarios for the road transport system have been developed, and their corresponding emissions compared to those arising from a baseline scenario, consisting exclusively of conventional fuels and engines. The results confirmed that by 2020 the emissions of NOx, PM and HC from a conventional vehicle fleet would be greatly decreased as a result of more stringent vehicle emission standards. Significant additional improvements could be achieved by the introduction of hydrogen-fuel cell vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, natural gas and biofuels. It was found that the emissions of the principal pollutants of concern in London, NOx and PM 10, show similar patterns of reduction. The results also imply that the anticipated increase in conventional vehicle efficiency would only deliver a minimal 2 percent reduction in CO 2 vehicle emissions relative to the present, but greater reductions were achieved in all the alternative scenarios.