Aliance Behavior of States in Balance of Power Theory

Abstract

This paper analyses the role of weak states in the theory of balance ofpower. Using advanced quantitative methods, this study builds on StephanWalt’s concept of balance of threat, which is derived from an original theoryof Kenneth Waltz, and examines the relation between two types of states’behaviour (balancing and bandwagoning) and the factors influencing thetendency of a state to choose one or the other. The influence of thesefactors is analysed in the period from the end of the Napoleonic Wars untilthe beginning of WWII in the European and South American regions. Basedon a statistical analysis, our study concludes that when the power of a statedecreases, its tendency towards balancing the main threat decreases aswell. The behaviour of states is also influenced by the geographic proximityof the main threat and the number of available allies as well as by thecharacter of the political regime of the given state, although these factorsoften have different influences within the examined regions.