Abstract
Forecasting extreme precipitations is one of the main priorities of hydrology in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Flood damage in urban areas increases every year, and is mainly caused by convective precipitations and hurricanes. In addition, hydrometeorological monitoring is limited in most countries in this region. Therefore, one of the primary challenges in the LAC region the development of a good rainfall forecasting model that can be used in an early warning system (EWS) or a flood early warning system (FEWS). The aim of this study was to provide an effective forecast of short-term rainfall using a set of climatic variables, based on the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship and taking into account that atmospheric water vapor is one of the variables that determine most meteorological phenomena, particularly regarding precipitation. As a consequence, a simple precipitation forecast model was proposed from data monitored at every minute, such as humidity, surface temperature, atmospheric pressure, and dewpoint. With access to a historical database of 1237 storms, the proposed model allows use of the right combination of these variables to make an accurate forecast of the time of storm onset. The results indicate that the proposed methodology was capable of predicting precipitation onset as a function of the atmospheric pressure, humidity, and dewpoint. The synoptic forecast model was implemented as a hydroinformatics tool in the Extreme Precipitation Monitoring Network of the city of Queretaro, Mexico (RedCIAQ). The improved forecasts provided by the proposed methodology are expected to be useful to support disaster warning systems all over Mexico, mainly during hurricanes and flashfloods.
Highlights
In Mexico, as in most Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, there is a deficit of historical precipitation data measured in time intervals of less than 24 h
A strong relationship between surface temperature and precipitation forecast has been reported in the literature, in addition to how these climatic variables impact streamflow ensemble forecasting [55]
The question is: What is the forecast time of rainy events? One implication of this is the possibility that a good rainfall forecasting model could be used in an early warning system for floods
Summary
In Mexico, as in most Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, there is a deficit of historical precipitation data measured in time intervals of less than 24 h. In Mexico, disasters are measured by the economic impact of damage and losses, as well as by the problems caused in the social environment, such as injured and dead people and damaged houses, schools, and hospitals, among other issues. It is necessary to point out that precipitation is episodic and does not have continuous values like temperature and other climate variables; it is noticeable that anticipating the occurrence of precipitation is difficult. The basic idea that the origin of convective precipitation as a function of surface temperature was demonstrated by [7], who used temperature and rain gauge station data of 5-min accumulation intervals
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