Algorithm of customs risk forecasting in export supply chains

Abstract

Aim. To develop recommendations on forecasting customs risks in export supply chains (ESC) for participants in foreign economic activity (FEA).Tasks. To consider the specific and problematic aspects of the customs risks from the standpoint of participants of foreign economic activity; to offer the variant of customs risks classification; to highlight possible risk-forming factors; to form the algorithm of forecasting.Methods. The author used general scientific methods (analysis, synthesis, decomposition) and special scientific methods (method of expert evaluations, legal analysis).Results. Recommendations for participants of foreign economic activity on predicting customs risks in EDS were developed and presented in the form of an algorithm. Option of visualizing the results of the forecast in the form of a forecast map is offered.Conclusions. Prediction algorithm aimed at improving the efficiency of customs risk manage­ment in EDS has been presented. Application of the above algorithm will reduce the unreason­able logistical costs of exporters, which in general will contribute to improving the competitive­ness of EDS and the development of export activities.