Alarm rationalization and dynamic risk analyses for rare abnormal events

Abstract

In this paper, improved alarm rationalization strategies are introduced to evaluate the quality of the multivariate alarm systems developed in previous work – with the alarm thresholds and response actions modified appropriately, based on key statistical metrics. For an exothermic CSTR, our strategies resulted in a significant reduction in the number of nuisance alarms, focusing on only quality alarms, which, if ignored, are more likely to result in an abnormal shift in operation to the undesirable regions. Next, their real-time performance is evaluated using dynamic risk analysis (DRAn), in which, the associated risk is analyzed by estimating the failure probabilities of the multivariate alarm systems using Bayesian statistics, based on multiple dynamic simulations for the process, inclusive of control, alarms and response actions. As expected, the failure probability distribution developed for the exothermic CSTR has a much lower variance as compared to one developed using a flat prior distribution.