Abstract

This study presents a verification and an analysis of wind profile data collected during Tropical Storm Erika (2015) by a Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL) instrument aboard a P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). DWL-measured winds are compared to those from nearly collocated GPS dropsondes, and show good agreement in terms of both the wind magnitude and asymmetric distribution of the wind field. A comparison of the DWL-measured wind speeds versus dropsonde-measured wind speeds yields a reasonably good correlation (r2 = 0.95), with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.58 m s−1 and a bias of −0.023 m s−1. Our analysis shows that the DWL complements the existing P3 Doppler radar, in that it collects wind data in rain-free and low-rain regions where Doppler radar is limited for wind observations. The DWL observations also complement dropsonde measurements by significantly enlarging the sampling size and spatial coverage of the boundary layer winds. An analysis of the DWL wind data shows that the boundary layer of Erika was much deeper than that of a typical hurricane-strength storm. Streamline and vorticity analyses based on DWL wind observations explain why Erika maintained intensity in a sheared environment. This study suggests that DWL wind data are valuable for real-time intensity forecasts, basic understanding of the boundary layer structure and dynamics, and offshore wind energy applications under tropical cyclone conditions.

Highlights

  • Substantial progress has been made in the accuracy of tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts, progress to improve intensity forecasts has lagged, especially for TCs undergoing rapid intensity (RI) change [1]

  • The atmospheric boundary layer that connects the ocean with the upper level TC vortex is a critical region for intensity change, because it governs both the energy distribution and dynamics required for TC intensification [2,3,4]

  • Even if a research buoy does occasionally survive in a strong TC [11], it must be located in the eyewall to obtain hurricane-force wind measurements

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Summary

Introduction

Substantial progress has been made in the accuracy of tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts, progress to improve intensity forecasts has lagged, especially for TCs undergoing rapid intensity (RI) change [1]. Even if a research buoy does occasionally survive in a strong TC [11], it must be located in the eyewall to obtain hurricane-force wind measurements. The probability of this occurring is small, due to uncertainties in the track forecast at the time of the buoy’s pre-storm deployment. This lack of observational data is believed to be one of the primary reasons why boundary layer processes remain poorly represented in operational TC models [12,13], which limits their ability to improve intensity forecasts

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