Abstract
Abstract. Wildfires are not only a threat to human property and a vital element of many ecosystems, but also an important source of air pollution. In this study, we first review the available evidence for a past or possible future climate-driven increase in wildfire emissions in Europe. We then introduce an ensemble of model simulations with a coupled wildfire–dynamic-ecosystem model, which we combine with published spatial maps of both wildfire and anthropogenic emissions of several major air pollutants to arrive at air pollutant emission projections for several time slices during the 21st century. The results indicate moderate wildfire-driven emission increases until 2050, but there is a possibility of large increases until the last decades of this century at high levels of climate change. We identify southern and north-eastern Europe as potential areas where wildfires may surpass anthropogenic pollution sources during the summer months. Under a scenario of high levels of climate change (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP, 8.5), emissions from wildfires in central and northern Portugal and possibly southern Italy and along the west coast of the Balkan peninsula are projected to reach levels that could affect annual mean particulate matter concentrations enough to be relevant for meeting WHO air quality targets.
Highlights
We will first summarise the importance of wildfires on air quality in Europe (Sect. 1.1), review what is known about the influence of past climate change on European wildfires (Sect. 1.2) and existing efforts to model change in future wildfire emissions (Sect. 1.3)
We introduce an ensemble of model simulations with a coupled wildfire– dynamic-ecosystem model, which we combine with published spatial maps of both wildfire and anthropogenic emissions of several major air pollutants to arrive at air pollutant emission projections for several time slices during the 21st century
We find that carbon monoxide (CO) and PM2.5 are the dominant pollutants emitted both by wildfires and human activities
Summary
We will first summarise the importance of wildfires on air quality in Europe (Sect. 1.1), review what is known about the influence of past climate change on European wildfires (Sect. 1.2) and existing efforts to model change in future wildfire emissions (Sect. 1.3). We will first summarise the importance of wildfires on air quality in Europe 1.2) and existing efforts to model change in future wildfire emissions Based on the findings described in the introduction, we combine inventories, scenarios and model-based future projections of anthropogenic and wildfire emissions with climate, terrestrial-ecosystem and fire model simulations (see Methods). This will identify potential geographical hotspots where certain pollutants from wildfires might reach or exceed anthropogenic emission levels, or become relevant for air quality targets as a first indication of where potential health-related risks may be caused by increased wildfire activity as a result of climate change
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