Changes in South American surface ozone trends: exploring the influences of precursors and extreme events

Abstract

Abstract. In this study, trends of 21st-century ground-level ozone and ozone precursors were examined across South America, a less-studied region where trend estimates have rarely been comprehensively addressed. Therefore, we provided an updated regional analysis based on validated surface observations. We tested the hypothesis that the recent increasing ozone trends, mostly in urban environments, resulted from intense wildfires driven by extreme meteorological events impacting cities where preexisting volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited regimes dominate. We applied the quantile regression method based on monthly anomalies to estimate trends, quantify their uncertainties and detect trend change points. Additionally, the maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) and peak-season metrics were used to assess short- and long-term exposure levels, respectively, for the present day (2017–2021). Our results showed lower levels in tropical cities (Bogotá and Quito), varying between 39 and 43 nmol mol−1 for short-term exposure and between 26 and 27 nmol mol−1 for long-term exposure. In contrast, ozone mixing ratios were higher in extratropical cities (Santiago and São Paulo), with a short-term exposure level of 61 nmol mol−1 and long-term exposure levels varying between 40 and 41 nmol mol−1. Santiago (since 2017) and São Paulo (since 2008) exhibited positive trends of 0.6 and 0.3 nmol mol−1 yr−1, respectively, with very high certainty. We attributed these upward trends, or no evidence of variation, such as in Bogotá and Quito, to a well-established VOC-limited regime. However, we attributed the greater increase in the extreme percentile trends (≥ 90th) to heat waves and, in the case of southwestern South America, to wildfires associated with extreme meteorological events.