Air quality and health impacts from the updated industrial emission standards in China

Abstract

To improve air quality, China has been increasing the stringency of national emission standards for industrial sectors. However, from the projected air quality and associated health impacts it is not known if the updated emission limits have been completely followed. Here, we develop emission inventories based on the emission limits at different stages and use the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model and health impact function to determine the potential air quality and health impacts for different scenarios. We found that full implementation of the special emission standards would decrease PM2.5 concentrations by over 25% in April, July and October, and decrease O3 concentrations in July by 10%–20%. Overall, the number of PM2.5-related premature deaths could be reduced by 0.15 million (95% confidence level 0.13–0.17 million) if special emission limits were met and that O3-related premature deaths would decrease by 18oo (95% confidence level 500–3000). However, even with these special emission limits, a greater than 25% increase in O3 levels occurred in northern China during October, January and April, leading to an increase in O3-related premature deaths in northern provinces which would offset the decrease in provincial PM2.5-related mortality by 10%–20%. These findings indicate that emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) should be reduced to avoid increases in O3 in VOC-limited provinces. Despite the increase in O3 in certain provinces, improvement of industrial emission standards could greatly limit PM2.5 pollution and reduce the associated health burden. Therefore, we suggest that government should accelerate full implementation of strict emission standards in order to improve air quality.