AIIB Development: Forecast and Implications

Abstract

Update: On June 24-26, 2016, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) held a board of directors meeting and its first annual meeting in Beijing, China. USD 509 million worth of loans will finance four projects approved by the AIIB The projects can be defined by the following characteristics: 1) infrastructure investment in countries situated on the path connecting the Belt and Road Initiative, 2) proposals by recipient country governments, 3) co-financing with other MDBs, and 4) small loans. Short-term Forecast: The AIIB's projects are predicted to involve joint collaboration via co-financing with other MDBs. As for joint ventures, other MDBs and recipient governments will propose AIIB participation in existing projects, and the AIIB will do due diligence before making a final investment decision. The reason behind this operational structure is that the AIIB is yet a newly-formed MDB and has a staff of only around 40 people in the working group. Consequently, it lacks the internal capacity to pursue a large-scale, stand-alone venture. Also, by setting its initial projects as collaborations with other MDBs, the AIIB can expect lower risk, seek to acquire business operation know-how, and build international public confidence. Above all, the AIIB will seek collaboration with international financial organizations including other MDBs, and strive to settle itself in the international financial system (in a bid to alleviate concerns that China will have undue influence on AIIB projects, or that it will challenge the existing international financial order).Mid to Long-term Forecast: The AIIB will possibly lead a greater share of stand-alone projects and support the Belt and Road Initiative financially, on the back of accumulated experience and better project financing capabilities. Projects related to the Belt and Road Initiative are expected to dominate, and economic corridor implementation projects that strengthen linkage among regions and countries will likely be considered a priority. There is also the possibility of collaboration with other new financial organizations founded under Chinese leadership (the BRICS-led New Development Bank (NDB), the Silk Road Fund, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)). These China-led organizations will provide funds for the Belt and Road Initiative's implementation and pursue the internationalization of the renminbi, which will help increase China's financial influence globally. Implications: In the case of co-financing projects, strong contenders are likely to be infrastructure projects related to the Belt and Road Initiative that have been developed and screened by other MDBs. Therefore, Korean companies will stand to gain by seeking participation in such ventures. Meanwhile, for stand-alone projects the AIIB will assess the feasibility of infrastructure projects proposed by member governments and companies. This would call for a proactive approach, identifying in advance the infrastructure demands of recipient countries and then cooperating with local institutions. Financial institutions should also respond appropriately to the AIIB's initial moves to pursue extensive cooperation with other MDBs, state-run financial institutions and global financial companies.