Abstract
This essay argues that a new subfield of AI governance should be explored that examines the policy-making process and its implications for AI governance. A growing number of researchers have begun working on the question of how to mitigate the catastrophic risks of transformative artificial intelligence, including what policies states should adopt. However, this essay identifies a preceding, meta-level problem of how the space of possible policies is affected by the politics and administrative mechanisms of how those policies are created and implemented. This creates a new set of key considerations for the field of AI governance and should influence the action of future policymakers. This essay examines some of the theories of the policymaking process, how they compare to current work in AI governance, and their implications for the field at large and ends by identifying areas of future research.
Highlights
Artificial intelligence, especially artificial general intelligence (AGI), has the ability to dramatically impact the future of humanity [1]
The two main branches of research on risk from advanced AI are AI safety, which seeks to ensure that advanced AI is engineered in such a way that it will not pose a threat; and AI governance, which focuses on political and social dynamics (AI macrostrategy) and forecasting timelines for AI development [3]
Some authors have focused on the development of AGI, with proposed solutions ranging from Joy (2000) [6] who calls for a complete moratorium on AGI research, to Hibbard (2002) [7] and Hughes (2007) [8], who advocate for regulatory regimes to prevent the emergence of harmful AGI, to McGinnis (2010), who advocates for the US to steeply accelerate friendly AGI research [9]
Summary
Artificial intelligence, especially artificial general intelligence (AGI), has the ability to dramatically impact the future of humanity [1]. Wilson (2013) [15] and Bostrom (2014) [2], on the other hand, call for some form of international agreement or control on AGI R&D, with the former advocating for a treaty These approaches are necessary given some of the risks, including states pursuing AGI for unprecedented military and economic strength with destabilizing effects (Shulman 2009) [16], and the concentration of wealth and political influence in large corporations (Goertzel 2017) [17]. The goal of this paper is to attempt to create a clearer launching point for discussions on the key considerations of the policymaking process for AI governance and the political considerations underpinning policy solutions for AI risk. The last sections cover some of the key implications and limitations
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