Abstract
As civilization advances, water resources are increasingly being consumed for domestic, industrial, and agricultural purposes, reducing the ability to find an equilibrium of water security and growing demands. This study presents an analysis and discussion of climate change impacts on water and agricultural sectors in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and their implications for potential future water scarcity regarding food security. The analysis reveals an overall increase in annual mean temperatures, ranging from 1.4 to 5.5 °C, a decrease in precipitation between 0.10 and 0.55 mm × day−1, strengthening of aridity across the whole IP, as well as a reduction in water content in the soil, for the periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100, respectively. These effects are generally more noticeable at lower latitudes for temperature and higher latitudes for precipitation. It also shows that the water demand is increasing in the IP, due to the increase in agricultural areas or intensive farming since water and food security are intricately connected. An increase of approximately 34% in the agricultural area was observed from 1990 to 2020. Furthermore, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values increased during this period, hinting at the increased need for water in the IP. Consequently, actions are needed to enhance food security by adopting strategies to preserve and conserve water, such as improved irrigation systems, the creation of retention basins, or the selection of new crops or varieties, more suitable to warm and dry climates, thus enhancing climate resilience in the IP.
Highlights
Climate change is closely related to human development, consumption, and growth patterns [1]
In one recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report [3], it is stated that many semi-arid regions (i.e., Mediterranean), will face a substantial decline in water availability due to climate change
This study provides a comprehensive analysis and discussion of the impacts of climate change on the water and agriculture sectors in the Iberian Peninsula (IP)
Summary
Climate change is closely related to human development, consumption, and growth patterns [1]. It affects all regions around the world, with the most significant impact in certain regions, such as the Mediterranean [2]. In one recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report [3], it is stated that many semi-arid regions (i.e., Mediterranean), will face a substantial decline in water availability due to climate change. The continuous increase in world population has threatened human health, natural systems, and agricultural production [4]. The increasing demand for food supply leads to intensive agriculture practices, escalating the need for more fertilizers and water demand [5], exerting pressure on land and water resources, resulting in soil erosion and pollution [6]. As the world’s population continues to grow, maintaining food security is an increasingly pertinent development goal
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