Abstract
This paper uses a Preston Curve approach to test for changes over time in agriculture, nutrition and food policy, comparing national averages in Africa and elsewhere at each level of national income per capita from the 1990s to the 2010s. Our statistical tests and data visualisations reveal that, at each level of income, African countries have faster rural population growth, a larger share of workers in agriculture and lower agricultural labour productivity than countries elsewhere, with no significant shift in these patterns from the 1990s to the 2010s. In contrast, there have been structural shifts towards less child stunting everywhere, and towards more adult obesity in high-income countries. The overall pattern of African governments’ food policies and government expenditures have not shifted, however, as they continue price interventions and low investment levels characteristic of low-income countries around the world.
Highlights
Introduction and motivationIn the first 15 years of the twenty-first century many African countries have experienced rapid economic growth and poverty reduction, accompanied by big changes in agri-food systems and human nutrition
We use a wide variety of data to test whether and how Africa’s recent changes in agriculture, nutrition and food policy differ from experience elsewhere, and from the patterns experienced within Africa in previous decades
From the start of economic growth, workers move from food production to services and industry in ways that could be explained by productivity growth in any sector, combined with limited opportunities for agricultural expansion due to relatively fixed supply of land and water, and relatively fixed demand for food or other farm products
Summary
In the first 15 years of the twenty-first century many African countries have experienced rapid economic growth and poverty reduction, accompanied by big changes in agri-food systems and human nutrition. We use a wide variety of data to test whether and how Africa’s recent changes in agriculture, nutrition and food policy differ from experience elsewhere, and from the patterns experienced within Africa in previous decades. This paper documents the timing and pattern of changes from the 1990s to the 2010s, comparing the experience of African countries to other regions, starting with the agricultural transformation described above, turning to nutrition and food policy. As documented most recently by Anderson and Nelgen (2013), through the twentieth century agricultural transformation was generally accompanied by the apparent paradox that governments in low-income countries typically intervened to reduce food prices, while middle- and high-income country governments typically intervened to raise them. We conclude this review by examining these food policy trends in Africa relative to other regions
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