Abstract
This paper evaluates the contribution of agricultural growth to poverty reduction in the D.R.Congo over the projection period 2013 - 2020. It raises questions over the investment options to sustain such growth effort. We use a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model combine with survey-based microsimulation analysis at both national and subnational levels. We assume in the simulations that additionnal growth in total factor productivity is an exogenous factor and find the following results. First, we find that 8.21% agricultural annual growth rate is more effective at reducing poverty and achieves the first MDG goal by 2020. Second, we identify agricultural investment priorities and the required levels of public spending to achieve such growth and poverty reduction goals. We further analyze the growth at the subsector level and find that cereals and roots are more pro-poor. From this perspective, agricultural strategy based on expanding foodcrops production should be afforded the highest priority.
Highlights
Long term trends for growth and poverty reduction in the D.R.Congo, according to evidence based technical analysis in the strategy support program [1], reveal that the country faces a lot of development challenges
We analyze the level of agricultural growth induced by the investment plan; we evaluate its implications for poverty reduction (Scenarios S7 and S8)
The results show that when the agricultural growth rate of 6% is targeted (S7 Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) scenario or scenario) during the period 2013-2020, the annual growth in agriculture is at least 6.15%
Summary
Long term trends for growth and poverty reduction in the D.R.Congo, according to evidence based technical analysis in the strategy support program [1], reveal that the country faces a lot of development challenges. The baseline scenario assumes a continuation of “2002-2009” experience of low agricultural productivity and slow progress in the fight against poverty. It replicates these historic trends from official statistics over the projection period 2010-2015, with an overall economic growth expanding at 5.3% and agricultural GDP at 3% per annum. With these growth paths the country could not achieve the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving the number of poor people by 2015 at both the national and subnational levels. The poverty headcount rate declines from 70% in 2005 to 35% by 2017 at national level
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