Abstract

Grape quality is generally assessed by measuring individual indicators rather than utilizing a comprehensive metric. A flexible approach to aggregating multiple quality-related parameters of grapes is introduced in this study, and an aggregative index was proposed for the synthetical evaluation of grape quality. First, visible-near-infrared (Vis-NIR) spectral data of two grape varieties were obtained, and the physical and chemical quality indicators were measured as reference standards. The variation trends and correlations of the indicators were analyzed, and an aggregative quality indicator (AQI) was proposed using the min-max normalization and factor analysis methods. The maturity stages of grapes were categorized by analyzing the AQI values. The spectral data underwent preprocessing using multiplicative scatter correction (MSC), Savitzky-Golay smoothing (SG), first-order derivative (FD), SG+FD and de-trending (DT) methods. Feature wavelengths were extracted using uninformative variable elimination (UVE), competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (CARS), and the UVE-CARS algorithms. Three regression models for the AQI were established based on partial least squares regression (PLSR), support vector machine regression (SVR) and convolutional neural network (CNN). Results indicated that the PLSR combined with the FD+SG preprocessing and CARS-selected feature wavelengths achieved optimal performance for Cabernet Sauvignon grapes, with the coefficient of determination for the prediction set (Rp2)=0.972, for the calibration set (Rc2)=0.995, the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP)=0.040 and residual predictive deviation (RPD)=6.064. In addition, for the Muscat Kyoho grape, CNN combined with DT preprocessed full-spectrum data yielded the best prediction for the AQI, with Rp2=0.989, Rc2=0.981, RMSEP=0.103 and RPD=9.482. This research demonstrated that the non-destructive prediction of grape aggregative qualities can be achieved through the combination of Vis-NIR spectroscopy and a chemometric analysis, offering a practical and comprehensive metric for determining grape maturity stages and optimal harvest times. This approach is particularly valuable for the wine industry, as it facilitates better decision-making and quality control.

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