Aggregate models for planning nautical tourism: Basic, trend and seasonal demand

Abstract

Nautical tourism sector has a strong impact on European GVA (Gross Value Added) and employment. For this sector, there are interesting works in the literature, some of which propose demand modelling in relation to the characteristics of users. These models are disaggregated and specific to territorial realities, they are interesting for the preparation of touristic port projects in the territory concerned, but are not usable for the planning of interventions in a large territorial area such as a region or a country.It is necessary to have studies that directly relate the main characteristics of demand with the structural characteristics of supply given by the berth quantity of a large area. The study of this relation is important for the planning of new touristic ports and / or for the strengthening of existing ones in a large area. It needs to have models of interaction between supply and demand at an aggregate level, useful for planning.The novelty of this paper is to point out modeling issues related to the simulation of nautical tourism demand segments. Aggregate data are the input of different classes of basic simulation models, specified and calibrated in relation to different demand segments. The advanced calibrated models are for trend and seasonal demand, combined in different specifications. The models are studied for a central area of the Mediterranean Sea, the Italy.The paper has the main objective to propose nautical tourism demand models of basic, trend and seasonal classes. The knowledge of the nautical tourism phenomenon and quantification of demand interacting with supply, support the activities planning and programming processes of touristic ports by technicians and researchers.