Abstract
This study uses election futures market data to provide the first empirical evidence that aggregate earnings conveys timely “election-relevant” information effecting betting market participants' expectations about the likely outcomes of United States presidential election campaigns. I document that aggregate earnings news is associated with multiple facets of U.S. economic health affecting voter utility. I then use high-frequency data from the Iowa Electronic Political Prediction Market (IEM) to document that aggregate earnings news, including cash flow news, is significantly related to changes in the expected outcomes of U.S. presidential elections and incremental of other measures of economic health.
Published Version
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