Abstract
Abstract The aim of the study was to diagnose the current and projected pace of ageing in the societies of European post-communist countries from the point of view of its being an increasing economic burden on the economically active population. The analysis covered the years 1990–2050. Ageing is already visible and, according to the forecast, the process will accelerate even more. The old-age dependency ratio (OADR) is expected to exceed 50 in half of the countries in the study by 2050. This will result in major threats to the further development of these countries and will lead to poverty and social exclusion of the elderly. In order to slow down the ageing process, the authorities of these countries should take a number of actions, the most important of which are the implementation of an effective and efficient pro-natal policy (so that the total fertility rate would increase above 2.1), and a well-thought-out migration policy.
Highlights
The collapse of the socialist system in European states in the early 1990s triggered, or modified, a number of political, social and economic processes taking place within them (HAVRYLYSHYN, 2007; JANUŠAUSKIENĖ, 2008; KOLLMORGEN, 2013)
In order to slow down the ageing process, the authorities of these countries should take a number of actions, the most important of which are the implementation of an effective and efficient pro-natal policy, and a well-thought-out migration policy
Based on estimates and research, it can be concluded that a positive net migration rate prevails in the richer countries of the region (BOTRIĆ, 2016; DRBOHLAV & SEIDLOVÁ, 2016; JANSKÁ ET AL., 2014; VAN NIMWEGEN & VAN DER ERF, 2010; ŠPROCHA & MAJO 2016) and a negative one exists in those of average wealth and the poorer ones (CAREJA, 2013; DRBOHLAV ET AL., 2017; MARTIN ET AL., 2002; TABAC, 2018; THAUT, 2009; WHITE ET AL., 2018; PÍONTKÍVSKA ET AL., 2018)
Summary
The collapse of the socialist system in European states in the early 1990s triggered, or modified, a number of political, social and economic processes taking place within them (HAVRYLYSHYN, 2007; JANUŠAUSKIENĖ, 2008; KOLLMORGEN, 2013). Among the processes modified by the fall of communism is ageing of the population. This is important because, according to PUTKARADZE ET AL. (2020), political and socio-economic factors have a fundamental impact on changes in the age structure of the population of post-communist countries. Ageing of the population results from an interaction of three demographic processes: fertility, mortality and migration (KÁČEROVÁ & NOVÁKOVÁ, 2016). Fertility and mortality in the analysed countries fall within the second demographic transition (SDT) (LESTHAEGHE, 2010; VAN DE KAA, 2004; ZAIDI & MORGAN, 2017), while the migration processes only partially match the SDT
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