Abstract
Japan’s ongoing struggle with rapid ageing is well known. Fertility and migration policies have both been proposed as solutions to Japan’s ageing population. We used stock flow population models to estimate the impact of hypothetical fertility and migration policy interventions on measures of aging in Japan from 2015 to 2050. We evaluated policy models based on the Old Age Dependency Ratio (OADR) they produced at the specified end date. Start dates ranged from 2020 to 2030 to assess the time horizons of individual policies. Fertility policies were found to be highly time dependent and only slowed the rate of increase of OADR. It would require a Total Fertility Rate far above replacement levels to compensate for Japan’s already aged demography. Migration policy was less time dependent. However, such measures would require unprecedented, and ultimately unrealistic, volumes of migration over coming decades in order to reduce Japan’s OADR. Our results suggest that fertility and migration based policy responses will be unable to significantly reduce Japan’s OADR or reverse Japan’s ageing population within the next few decades. Japan should focus on activating its human capital through the prolongation of working lives, increasing participation, and improving productivity within the Japanese labour force to mitigate and adapt to the inevitable effects of ageing populations.
Highlights
Population ageing is a global phenomenon with profound implications for social stability and economic growth [1, 2]
This paper aims to analyse the impact of fertility and migration policy responses to ageing populations on population outcomes using the example of Japan by:
A combination policy aiming for both increased fertility rates amongst women and increased annual immigration was shown to be most effective at lowering Old Age Dependency Ratio (OADR) over the period
Summary
Population ageing is a global phenomenon with profound implications for social stability and economic growth [1, 2]. The increased burden upon public services [3], finances [4], and wider social and familial support networks [5] in countries with aged demographics are well reported. This is the case in Japan, where decades of low fertility and increased life expectancy have led to a significantly aged and rapidly ageing population. It is estimated that one in three people will be aged over 65 years old by 2030 [6] This has in turn led to dramatically increased fiscal burdens, with the ratio of social security expenditure to nominal GDP being estimated to rise from 23% in 2010 to 42.9% in 2060 [7]. This trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future
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