Age, Period, and Cohort Effects on Time Trends in Alcohol Consumption in the German Adult Population

Abstract

Aims: To estimate independent age, period, and cohort effects on time trends in alcohol volume and episodic heavy drinking in Germany. Method: Data from six waves of the German Epidemiological Survey of Substance Abuse (ESA) between 1995 and 2009 were used. The analytical sample comprised n = 34,542 individuals aged 18 to 64 years with at least one drinking occasion in the last 30 days. Alcohol volume was derived from beverage-specific quantity frequency questions. Episodic heavy drinking was specified as the number of days with five or more alcoholic drinks at a single occasion. Results: On average across age and cohort groups, alcohol consumption has considerably declined over the last 15 years. Cohort effects indicate a decline in alcohol volume from the 1940s to the 1970s birth cohort groups and a steep increase in younger cohorts. Moreover, cohorts born after 1980 were found to drink more often to intoxication than older cohorts. Age variations in trends were rather small compared to period and cohort effects. Conclusions: Despite the steady declining trend in alcohol consumption in the German general population, there is a tendency toward riskier drinking patterns among the youngest cohorts. This underlines the need for alcohol policy measures.