After the Pandemic Disease, Could the Economic World Resume the Sustainability Path?

Abstract

Is there any chance that the global economy struggling with the pandemic, could be able to recover soon or would the times get longer? Answering this question becomes quite hard because we can’t rely on any precedent. The statistical projections rely on the hypothesis “tomorrow the same as today”, thus showing some uncertainty. However, we cannot forget that the pre-coronavirus world was and still is troubled by a creeping deflation; this is a sign that the economy goes through an unstable condition and has lost the route of the correct relationship with nature. On the other hand, we are witnessing an exceptional exploit in the performance of some Asian countries, in particular China and India. A phenomenon that should be interpreted as the result of a natural correction tending to the resource and culture appropriate distribution between continents. A phenomenon that worked as an accelerator of global development and that has now almost stopped, due to the substantial parity of China with Europe and North America. Then there is the issue of the unequal wealth distribution in the major Nations with an accumulation at the top of society and an increasing poverty spread. A phenomenon that is contrasting the economic development and is causing serious social tensions. The natural correction is entrusted to the subordinate financial cycle which, however, plays to the advantage of the real economy. Any projection of the post-pandemic economic performance should therefore consider the action of the whole series of events. We can say that the lockdown of the global economy has the result of a forced recession that we may consider as actually playing a natural role in reducing the instability inside the economy. And this can give the result of a rising inflation (now too low) and therefore of a potential improvement in the economic climate. Regarding the issue of resource redistribution between continents, we may expect that -after Asia- also Africa and Latin America would be involved in the development acceleration process. This eventuality of the reciprocal interests between competing countries, whether applied with a greater energy, would certainly be a driving force towards the global development. Finally, the issue of great wealth and great poverty will be a valid reason for a substantial attention by the fiscal and monetary policy, because the correction of these anomalies will be a necessary direction in order to avoid economic and social problems that could twist like dangerous snakes.