Afghanistan on a knife-edge

Abstract

Afghanistan finds itself on a knife-edge. The September–October 2015 crisis in Kunduz highlighted the scale of the challenges facing its “National Unity Government”, which does not enjoy widespread popular confidence and is constrained by its neopatrimonial character, inherited from the times of Hamed Karzai. Insecurity contributed to an outflow towards Europe of more than 200,000 Afghans in 2015. Some see negotiation with the Taliban as a way of addressing Afghanistan’s problems, but many difficulties litter this path, not least that Pakistan’s military intelligence could easily confect another force to advance its perceived interests in Afghanistan. It is Pakistan’s disposition to meddle in Afghanistan – a form of “creeping invasion” – that ultimately fuels instability in Afghanistan, and diplomatic and political means should be employed to pressure Pakistan to close the sanctuaries it provides for the Taliban and their associates. The positive psychological effects of such a move would likely be immediate and dramatic.