Understanding the Afghanistan conundrum

Abstract

Afghanistan is facing serious security and governance challenges. Terrorist attacks have gone up in numbers and intensity even thoughanagreement between the US and the Taliban has been signed on 29 February 2020. The Taliban is much more assertive, has an influence on a large part of the Afghan territory and has been reluctant to talk to the Afghan government. Multiple state actors have strategic, economic and security interests in Afghanistan guiding the extent of their engagement. The US’s anxiety to exit Afghanistan has been apparent. Russia is concerned about the spillover impact of extremism and the drugs trade. China is keen to guard its economic and strategic interests in Afghanistan. Pakistan, although it is cherishing the credit forfacilitating the US–Taliban deal, remains a challenge and the Afghan government and local population blame Pakistan for the instability in Afghanistan. Pakistan has been obsessed with the concept of maintaining “strategic depth” in Afghanistan. The leading objective behind Pakistan’s intervention in Afghanistan undeniably remains India. Pakistan military and ISI are against Indian engagement in Kabul. For India, Afghanistan is important and the two countries share a cultural, economic and strategic relationship. India–Afghan relations have gone through highs and the lows owing to strategic developments, but by and large, post-2001, the two countries have shared a cordial relationship based on governmental exchange, India’s soft power in Afghanistan, strong people-to-people contacts and New Delhi’s persistent developmental engagement with Afghanistan. It is critical to analyse the Afghan situation with respect to the roles of the various actors to be able to understand the regional security dynamics.