Abstract
Winter wheat is an important crop in the UK, suited to the typical weather conditions in the current climate. In a changing climate the increased frequency and severity of adverse weather events, which are often localised, are considered a major threat to wheat production. In the present study we assessed a range of adverse weather conditions, which can significantly affect yield, under current and future climates based on adverse weather indices. We analysed changes in the frequency, magnitude and spatial patterns of 10 adverse weather indices, at 25 sites across the UK, using climate scenarios from the CMIP5 ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The future UK climate is expected to remain favourable for wheat production, with most adverse weather indicators reducing in magnitude by the mid-21st century. Hotter and drier summers would improve sowing and harvesting conditions and reduce the risk of lodging. The probability of late frosts and heat stress during reproductive and grain filling periods would likely remain small in 2050. Wetter winter and spring could cause issues with waterlogging. The severity of drought stress during reproduction would generally be lower in 2050, however localised differences suggest it is important to examine drought at a small spatial scale. Prolonged water stress does not increase considerably in the UK, as may be expected in other parts of Europe. Climate projections based on the CMIP5 ensemble reveal considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of adverse weather conditions including waterlogging, drought and water stress. The variation in adverse weather conditions due to GCMs was generally greater than between emissions scenarios. Accordingly, CMIP5 ensembles should be used in the assessment of adverse weather conditions for crop production to indicate the full range of possible impacts, which a limited number of GCMs may not provide.
Highlights
Climate change is associated with a warming trend, as well as, increasing climatic variability and extremes (Rahmstorf and Coumou, 2011; IPCC et al, 2012; Kovats et al, 2014)
CMIP5 ensembles should be used in the assessment of adverse weather conditions for crop production to indicate the full range of possible impacts, which a limited number of global climate models (GCMs) may not provide
We examine the probability and severity of adverse weather conditions for the baseline and future climate scenarios using the median result from all 16 GCMs, as well as, analysing the range of results across the 16 GCMs to provide an indication of uncertainty
Summary
Climate change is associated with a warming trend, as well as, increasing climatic variability and extremes (Rahmstorf and Coumou, 2011; IPCC et al, 2012; Kovats et al, 2014). Agricultural production is highly dependent on weather conditions, and extreme and adverse weather events beyond the normal conditions experienced by crops can have a dramatic impact on their yield. When coinciding with sensitive stages of crop development, adverse weather events including high temperature, late frost, heavy precipitation and drought can severely reduce crop yield and affect its quality (Deryng et al, 2014; Powell and Reinhard, 2015; Trnka et al, 2014). The impact and increased frequency of adverse weather events may pose more of an immediate risk to food production, in comparison to changes in mean climate, since farmers have less time to adapt. Adverse weather has been the focus of increasing attention in crop-climate modelling studies
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