Advancing human mobility modeling: a novel path flow approach to mining traffic congestion dynamics

Abstract

Mining traffic congestion dynamics presents difficulties in data structure and spatiotemporal analysis. Existing studies mainly provide insights from a supply perspective, with a restricted examination of why congestion occurs and how travel demands affect congestion. This study introduces an innovative framework to mine congestion dynamics from the perspective of human mobility. In human mobility modeling, we refine the conventional origin-destination representation of activity flow by introducing "path flow" (PF) which considers space-time paths and movement patterns. In congestion scenarios, congestion-related path flow (CPF) and congested path sub-flow (CPSF) are extended to track individuals’ congestion exposure and explore the correlations between congestion and human mobility. To finely classify congestion-related travel demands, a Bayesian inference approach, incorporating destination and spatiotemporal heterogeneities, is developed to deduce trip purposes. The experiments conducted in Wuhan demonstrate the availability and importance of PF in spatiotemporal dynamics analysis of human mobility. Interestingly, we find that 1) the job-housing relationship is imbalanced, with massive residents opting for cross-district living and working; 2) individuals tend to visit tertiary hospitals on weekends and secondary medical facilities with less congestion on weekdays. Notably, path flow can promote the fine-grained modeling of human mobility and provide theoretical support for many urban issues.