Advancing forest carbon stocks’ mapping using a hierarchical approach with machine learning and satellite imagery

Abstract

Remote sensing of forests is a powerful tool for monitoring the biodiversity of ecosystems, maintaining general planning, and accounting for resources. Various sensors bring together heterogeneous data, and advanced machine learning methods enable their automatic handling in wide territories. Key forest properties usually under consideration in environmental studies include dominant species, tree age, height, basal area and timber stock. Being proxies of stand productivity, they can be utilized for forest carbon stock estimation to analyze forests’ status and proper climate change mitigation measures on a global scale. In this study, we aim to develop an effective machine learning-based pipeline for automatic carbon stock estimation using solely freely available and regularly updated satellite observations. We employed multispectral Sentinel-2 remote sensing data to predict forest structure characteristics and produce their detailed spatial maps. Using the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm in classification and regression settings and management-level inventory data as reference measurements, we achieved quality of predictions of species equal to 0.75 according to the F1-score, and for stand age, height, and basal area, we achieved an accuracy of 0.75, 0.58 and 0.56, respectively, according to the R2. We focused on the growing stock volume as the main proxy to estimate forest carbon stocks on the example of the stem pool. We explored two approaches: a direct approach and a hierarchical approach. The direct approach leverages the remote sensing data to create the target maps, and the hierarchical approach calculates the target forest properties using predicted inventory characteristics and conversion equations. We estimated stem carbon stock based on the same approach: from Earth observation imagery directly and using biomass and conversion factors developed for the northern regions. Thus, our study proposes an end-to-end solution for carbon stock estimations based on the complexation of inventory data at the forest stand level, Earth observation imagery, machine learning predictions and conversion equations for the region. The presented approach enables more robust and accurate large-scale assessments using limited annotated datasets.