Abstract
Forecasting technology capabilities requires a tool and a process for capturing state‐of‐the‐art technology metrics and estimates for future metrics. A decision support tool, known as the Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS), contains a Technology Tool Box (TTB) database designed to accomplish this goal. Sections of this database correspond to a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) developed by NASA’s Exploration Systems Research and Technology (ESRT) Program. These sections cover the waterfront of technologies required for human and robotic space exploration. Records in each section include technology performance, operations, and programmatic metrics. Timeframes in the database provide metric values for the state of the art (Timeframe 0) and forecasts for timeframes that correspond to spiral development milestones in NASA’s Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) development strategy. Collecting and vetting data for the TTB will involve technologists from across the agency, the aerospace industry and academia. Technologists will have opportunities to submit technology metrics and forecasts to the TTB development team. Semi‐annual forums will facilitate discussions about the basis of forecast estimates. As the tool and process mature, the TTB will serve as a powerful communication and decision support tool for the ESRT program.
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