Economic Development of Space (EDS) Project Update: Examining and Simulating the Space Marketplace

Abstract

*† ‡ § ** Given the limited resources of future public outlays in space, long-term space activities have to be envisioned and implemented with the commercial sector in mind. It is imperative for the government to monitor the commercial marketplace of ideas as well as to fund spinoff technology development activities relevant to that marketplace. Recent examples of such emerging space companies include the birth of suborbital space tourism (Ansari X-Prize competitors), new low cost cargo launch options (SpaceX), and commercial-sector inflatable habitats (Bigelow Aerospace). These influences may have an equal, if not greater impact, upon the ultimate outcome of space exploration than any combination of NASA-specific funded technologies. Such future (and commercially-related) activities could dramatically lower the cost of developing and operating exploration assets. NASA's most recent approach for future human and robotic exploration is documented in the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE). The President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy in June 2004 stressed the imperative of commercial involvement in the VSE. A contribution by SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) to the implementation of the VSE is the Economic Development of Space (EDS): Examination and Simulation project. Begun in April of 2005, this project is funded by NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) for the Exploration Systems Research and Technology (ESR&T) office at NASA Headquarters. The EDS project’s aim is to examine NASA's utilization of commercial sector assets and evaluate what changes are needed to NASA requirements to promote the commercial development of space. The EDS project involves workshops attended by relevant thought leaders to address both the potential services that can legitimately be provided by the commercial marketplace and the spin-offs from government exploration missions that could be utilized by the private sector. This project also involves the development and application of the Nodal Economic Space Commerce (NESC) model, an agent-based market simulation of various future space markets (suborbital space tourism, ISS crew/cargo re-supply, space resources, etc.) and the resultant financial case of entities that undertake these projects. The NESC model includes logic for dynamic modeling of interactions within marketplaces including between competitors, different types of market conditions (duopoly, pure competition, etc.), and the impact of the government actions (technology investment, anchor contracts, tax credits, etc.) upon commercial entities. This paper presents an update of Phase I activity of the EDS project. Phase I examines products and services related to human and cargo presence in space such as Earth-to-orbit (ETO) transportation for crew/cargo and commercial infrastructures such as space habitats. Results are presented from the first two EDS workshops that took place in Washington, D.C. and Las Vegas, NV in calendar year 2005. A preview of the NESC model is given along with its development plan. The qualitative and quantitative assessments from the EDS project will help develop a roadmap the government can use to plan the appropriate mix of commercial acquisition and government development required to meet the goals of the VSE.