Advanced Intelligent Approach for Solar PV Power Forecasting Using Meteorological Parameters for Qassim Region, Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic (SPV) power penetration in dispersed generation systems is constantly rising. Due to the elevated SPV penetration causing a lot of problems to power system stability, sustainability, reliable electricity production, and power quality, it is critical to forecast SPV power using climatic parameters. The suggested model is built with meteorological conditions as input parameters, and the effects of such variables on predicted SPV power have been studied. The primary goal of this study is to examine the effectiveness of optimization-based SPV power forecasting models based on meteorological conditions using the novel salp swarm algorithm due to its excellent ability for exploration and exploitation. To forecast SPV power, a recently designed approach that is based on the salp swarm algorithm (SSA) is used. The performance of the suggested optimization model is estimated in terms of statistical parameters which include Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Training Time (TT). To test the reliability and validity, the proposed algorithm is compared to grey wolf optimization (GWO) and the Levenberg–Marquardt-based artificial neural network algorithm. The values of RMSE and MSE obtained using the proposed SSA algorithm come out as 1.45% and 2.12% which are lesser when compared with other algorithms. Likewise, the TT for SSA is 12.46 s which is less than that of GWO by 8.15 s. The proposed model outperforms other intelligent techniques in terms of performance and robustness. The suggested method is applicable for load management operations in a microgrid environment. Moreover, the proposed study may serve as a road map for the Saudi government’s Vision 2030.