Artificial Neural Network-based Models for Short Term Forecasting of Solar PV Power Output and Battery State of Charge of Solar Electric Vehicle Charging Station

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to develop ANN-based predictive models for short-term forecasting of solar PV power output and battery state of charge. The 3Ds energy model that integrates Decarbonization, Digitalization, and Decentralization of the energy system to facilitate the shift towards sustainable energy sources is used for this electric vehicle project. The experimental set up includes solar PV panels, a solar inverter, a battery inverter, and a battery bank. Additionally, smart meters were installed to collect real-time performance data from the solar PV-powered electric vehicle (EV) charging station. The weather and real-time system performance data were used to develop short term forecasting models based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and the Levenberg-Marquardt method, to predict the performance of the system (power output and state of the charge) ahead. The R values for the prediction models of solar photovoltaic (PV) specific power and battery state of charge fall within the range of 0.9957 to 0.9969 and 0.9990 to 0.9996, respectively. Furthermore, the mean squared errors (MSEs) for the artificial neural network (ANN) models pertaining to solar photovoltaic (PV) power output and battery state of charge exhibit a variety of values. Specifically, the MSEs for solar PV power output range from 1.242 x 10ˆ-4 to 1.579 x 10ˆ-4, while the MSEs for battery status of charge range from 0.1889 to 0.3402. Artificial neural network (ANN) models possess considerable promise for practical implementations as they simplify intricate connections among inputs, parameters, and outputs in real-world scenarios. The level of accuracy and short-term predictive models of the solar PV powered EV charging station are very important for achieving a balance between the supply of solar photovoltaic (PV) system and the demand for electric vehicles (EVs). Predictive models will help build complex control mechanisms for controlling and optimizing solar PV-powered charging stations, supervising their operation and maintenance, and simplifying renewable energy pre-purchase. Future works will include the development of an energy management system to improve the efficiency of the solar stations charging the EVs, the establishment of blockchain networks for both the solar PV system and battery bank, and the integration of cybersecurity protocols for the charging station.