Abstract
This articles analyses a contemporary problem, which has not been thoroughly analysed in scientific literature – Estimation of Digital Shadow Economy through a modified MIMIC model. It is the first pilot research of such type, which allows to reveal the need of deeper data analysis and data collection. Received results show, that three causal factors (internet access, and PC availability for households, non-cash payments, placement of innovative financial instruments on a market) and three indicators (non-cash transfers through internet payment platforms, volume of payments in cryptocurrencies and parcels, which are tax free at the customs) are not enough in order to perform interpretations of economic results. Additionally, the data set should cover longer-term data, however the limitation appears due to relatively short existence of innovative financial products and the lack of information accumulation about necessary data in statistical databases.
Highlights
Despite much economic and scientific effort to understand the causes and effects of shadow economy, this issue remains controversial and has been extensively discussed
In order to start creating the model of Digital Shadow Economy, first of all, it was determined, whether the data satisfies the requirements for modified MIMIC model: 1. Observed variables should be dispersed normally
The features of Digital Shadow Economy are anonymity of performed transactions, unknown geographical location between the contract parties, which allow stating, that the statistics of couple of causal factors and indicators could be global statistics, the remaining variables should reflect analysed country specifics, as non-cash payments, internet access and possession of personal computers among households
Summary
Despite much economic and scientific effort to understand the causes and effects of shadow economy, this issue remains controversial and has been extensively discussed. After the review of proposed causal variables of digital shadow economy, it is purposeful to analyse the proposed indicators of this phenomenon As it was mentioned above, proposed indicators of digital shadow economy cover the volumes of payments in cryptocurrencies (e.g. Bitcoins), non-cash transfers via online payment platforms, and monetary value of the parcels for which no custom duties are paid. By their purpose, cryptocurrencies can be considered as a type of electronic money and an innovative measure of settlements that allows to make fast payments for products or services acquired online. The main indicators of the size of digital shadow economy include frequency of payments in cryptocurrencies (e.g. Bitcoins), noncash transfers via online payment platforms, and monetary value of the seized parcels for which no custom duties are paid
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