Adjuvant chemotherapy for resected stage II and III colon cancer: Comparison of widely used two prognostic calculators

Abstract

e15031 Background: Two web based prognostic calculators, Adjuvant! and Numeracy (JCO 22:1797–1806, 2004) are widely used to provide individual patient outcome predictions to aid decisions regarding adjuvant therapy for colon cancer. The comparability of these tools has not been studied yet. The aim of this project was to assess whether the Numeracy and Adjuvant! Colon cancer prognostic tools produced similar results for patients with resected stage II and III colon cancer based on a set of hypothetical patients. Methods: All possible hypothetical scenarios were formulated for the Numeracy calculator based on all potential combinations of age, lymph nodes status, tumor stage, and grade of tumor. These were applied to three post- surgical therapy choices: observation, 5-FU (5-fluorouracil), or FOLFOX (5-FU, leucovorin and oxaliplatin). Predictions for these hypothetical scenarios (N= 192 for males and 192 for females) were also entered into the Adjuvant! Program. Predicted relapse free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were obtained using both calculators. Wilcoxon signed rank tests were used to compare the numerical predictions between the calculators for each outcome. Results: In the majority of the 384 hypothetical patient scenarios, predictions for RFS and OS from Adjuvant! were statistically significantly higher than from Numeracy (p value < 0.05), except for age≥70 for FOLFOX, and the number of positive nodes of 0 and 1–4 using FOLFOX, among males. The net estimate of benefit for RFS and OS for 5-FU over surgery, obtained from Adjuvant! and Numeracy, were similar (for both males and females), but the benefit in RFS and OS for FOLFOX over 5-FU obtained from Adjuvant! was significantly lower than the estimate obtained from Numeracy (p value < 0.05). Conclusions: Based on a hypothetical set of patients with resected stage II and III colon cancer, the estimated benefit in RFS and OS of FOLFOX over 5-FU based chemotherapy is lower in Adjuvant! than in the Numeracy tool (but benefit for 5-FU over surgery alone is similar). Further studies are needed to clarify the discrepancy and to assess which of these tools most accurately reflects actual patient outcome. No significant financial relationships to disclose.