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Abstract
This paper shows that the results of contemporary probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), uniform hazard spectra, and hazard curves are inconsistent with the fragilitymethod used for seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The calculation used in PSHA is based on the evaluation of the probability of exceeding specified acceleration levels without considering the damaging effects of earthquakes. Empirical fragility of structures and components derived from field observations or qualification tests is conditioned to model large earthquakes, so fragility analysis must be adjusted to correspond with PSHA hazard estimates. Adjustment based on energy absorption principles is presented in the sections that follow, andmacroseismic information from intensity is used for verification. The procedure suggested was applied in seismic probabilistic risk assessment for the Goesgen, Switzerland, nuclear power plant (NPP).
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