Adapting hydropower production to climate change: A case study of Kulekhani Hydropower Project in Nepal

Abstract

Hydropower is one of the reliable and clean sources of energy helping in climate change mitigation, nevertheless, its generation is impacted by climate change. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on the Kulekhani Hydropower Project (KHP), Nepal and evaluate the adaptation options to maximize hydropower generation under climate change scenarios. Three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) namely ACCESS, CNRM and MPI were bias-corrected by linear scaling method for future periods of 2020s (2010–2039), 2050s (2040–2069) and 2080s (2070–2099) with the baseline period of 1976–2005. The increase in maximum and minimum temperatures were found to vary from 0.4–3.8 °C and 0.4–4.2 °C respectively with a magnitude of rise higher for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. However, precipitation was found to be erratic showing no specific trends but rather found to increase in the dry season and decrease in the wet season, along with the shifts in the time of peak. Additionally, hydrological models were used to simulate future discharge and hydropower generation under climate change scenarios. Besides, the hydropower generation was projected to decrease by 0.5–13% for different periods compared with the baseline. Further, several reservoir rule curves were examined as an adaptation option to minimize the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and it was found that the modification of existing rule can offset the negative impacts. The results of this study will be helpful for KHP authority to revise the operation and management of reservoir for sustainable hydropower production.