Achieving Chinaʼs carbon neutrality goal by economic growth rate adjustment and low-carbon energy structure

Abstract

To effectively address global warming, all countries need to achieve carbon neutral targets as soon as possible, and it is of great importance when China, as the world's largest emitter, achieves its carbon peak and subsequently its carbon neutral target. To examine these twin goals of achieving a carbon peak and carbon neutrality, we comprehensively apply the component data method, the cointegration analysis method and the scenario analysis method. By presenting 27 scenarios of achieving carbon neutrality on the basis of first achieving a carbon peak through economic growth rate adjustment and energy consumption structure, the results show that under low economic growth and low-carbon energy consumption scenarios, China's carbon emissions will peak in 2026, and will achieve the carbon neutrality target in 2056. However, under other scenarios, the carbon peak is only reached in 2030, and China cannot achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Therefore, China needs to accept slower economic growth and achieve a cleaner net-zero energy consumption structure.