Abstract
Accurate identification, projection and dynamic evaluation of ecological degradation priorities are important prerequisites for realizing ecological restoration and territorial protection. However, the complexity of ecological systems and environmental diversity often limit the effectiveness of single-model evaluation approaches. Utilizing Badong County as a case study, this paper integrated the InVEST-Circuit-PLUS model to comprehensively analyze the eco-dynamic sustainability and restoration needs. Through performing projection of land cover, construction of ecological source areas, calculation of ecological resistance characteristics and extraction of ecological elements, we were able to identify priority ecological restoration areas over a twenty-year period (2007-2027). The results revealed cyclical land cover transformations from forest to cropland and back to forest, with an overall trend of forest cover expansion. While the county's ecological quality showed a slight decline, the location and extent of high-value ecological source areas were mapped in detail. By integrating ecosystem service value assessments, driver factor analyses, and the development of a "One Belt, Two Axes, Three Sources and Four Zones" ecological management framework, we were able to uncover the nuanced spatial and temporal dynamics shaping the regional ecology. These findings provide an evidence-based foundation to guide targeted ecological restoration and sustainable land use planning, which has verified the feasibility of the framework.
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