Accuracy of Pup Classifications and Its Effect on Population Estimates in the Hooded Seal (Cystophora cristata)

Abstract

Information from the classification of age-specific developmental stages has been used to adjust aerial survey estimates of pup production in a number of species of seals, including the hooded seal (Cystophora cristata). We test the assumption that hooded seal pups were accurately and consistently classified according to developmental stage and examine the consequences of misclassifications upon adjusted population estimates. We determined overall misclassification rates, the effect of survey height on classifications, and interobserver variability. At ice level, misclassifications rates were low (<3%). From an altitude of 30 m, newborn pups could not be classified correctly and misclassification rates for the two other stages of attended pups varied between 6.4 and 21.3%. There was no evidence of an overall bias in classifications or differences among observers although there was a significant interaction between day and stage. Individual pups appear to have been misclassified independently by each observer. Under actual survey conditions, observers classified a similar proportion of pups into each recognizable stage. The misclassification rates we observed did not significantly alter the previous population estimate. Methods for improving the current survey design include modifying classification criteria, providing observers with a period of on-ice training, and reducing the width of survey transects.