Accuracy of analyzed stratospheric temperatures in the winter Arctic vortex from infrared Montgolfier long‐duration balloon flights 2. Results

Abstract

Five long‐duration flights with the Mongolfier infrared (MIR) balloon lasting 15 days, on average, have been conducted in the Arctic winter stratospheric vortex in 1997, 1999, and 2000. Temperatures from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Met Office (MO), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Data Assimilation Office (DAO), and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (REA) have been compared to the observations from 4 to 146 hPa. Occasional large errors (>14 K) occur in each analysis, mainly above 30 hPa. In 2000 the standard deviations of ECMWF, MO, and DAO with respect to the measured temperatures range from 1.0 to 1.3 K, whereas NCEP and REA have substantially larger errors. In 1999 the flights took place during a major warming, and all operational models had large standard deviations and substantial biases. Preoperational versions of the new ECMWF model with increased stratospheric resolution and assimilation of the advanced microwave sounding unit, which none of the other models assimilated, show small biases and standard deviations.