Accuracy assessment of the monthly GRACE geoids based upon a simulation

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The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the effect of geophysical background model errors that affects temporal gravity solutions provided by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE). Initial performance estimates by Dickey et al. (1997) suggested a formal geoid RMS error better than 0.1 mm up to spherical harmonic degree 5. Now that the GRACE gravity models and data are available, it is evident that these original expectations were too optimistic. Our hypothesis is that this is partially explained by errors in geophysical background models that need to be applied in the GRACE data reduction, and that this effect was not considered by Dickey et al. (1997). We discuss the results of a closed-loop simulation, where satellite trajectory prediction software is used for the generation of GRACE range-rate data and GRACE orbit solutions with the help of the Global Positioning System (GPS). During the recovery step in our closed-loop simulation, we show that simulated nuisance signals (based on tide and air pressure model differences) map to a 0.7 mm geoid effect for periods longer than 3 months and to less than 0.4 mm for periods shorter than 3 months. The long-period geoid hydrology signal is at a level of 4.5 mm, while the short-period hydrology is at 0.25 mm. The long-period ocean bottom pressure (OBP) signal maps at 0.8 mm and for short periods it is 0.4 mm. We conclude that short-period effects are difficult to observe by GRACE and that long-period effects, like hydrology, are easier to recover than OBP variations.