Accounting for the Trump factor in modeling the COVID-19 epidemic: the case of Louisiana

Abstract

<abstract> Utilizing a SIRE model, I analyze the impact of the 'Trump factor', defined as the ratio of Republican to Democratic voters, in the spread of COVID-19 in the state of Louisiana. The principal findings are these: when the Trump factor is estimated with 2016 State election results, the share of infections peaks at around 40 percent, and the share of expired (deaths) plateaus at around 3.015 percent of the state's population. Utilizing 2020 State election data, the share of infections decreases slightly – to 39 percent – and the share of expired plateaus at 3.018 percent. If the Trump factor is measured utilizing 2020 National election results, the share of infections in Louisiana would only reach 12 percent of the population and the share of expired would stabilize at 2.254 percent, reflecting a decrease in the number of total deaths of roughly 23, 459 individuals. An important conclusion is that had Trump shown more interest, and relied more heavily, on the advice of his health experts to make public pronouncements about the pandemic, perhaps the evolution of the virus in the US would not have been as tragic and costly as it has been. </abstract>