Accounting for Changes in Automobile Gasoline Consumption in Japan: 2000–2007

Shigemi Kagawa,Yuriko Goto,Sangwon Suh,Yuki Kudoh,Keisuke Nansai

doi:10.1186/2193-2409-1-9

Abstract

This paper analyzes gasoline consumption in Japan for the period 2000–2007 using the index decomposition analysis (IDA). The changes in gasoline consumption in Japan were attributed to five factors: (1) change in the annual average driving distance of new and vintage cars, (2) change in the market share of new passenger cars, (3) change in the total number of new passenger cars, (4) change in the fuel economy of new passenger cars, and (5) change in the stock of vintage cars. We used the IDA results to estimate the economy-wide direct rebound effect, where improved fuel mileage causes additional travel. We found that the total gasoline saved by shifting from vintage ordinary passenger cars to both new kei passenger cars and new hybrid cars during fiscal 2006–2007 amounted to 395 ML, while about half of the gasoline savings from car replacement were lost by the direct rebound effects. The analysis shows that the direct rebound effect can be crucial in the effort of reducing overall gasoline consumption as well as household CO2 emissions from passenger cars. JEL Classification: Q41, Q43.

Highlights

In July 2001, the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI), the Ministry of the Environment (MOE), and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism (MLIT) jointly implemented the “Action Plan for the Development and Diffusion of Low-emission Vehicles”
We examined three types of cars: ordinary passenger cars, kei passenger cars, and hybrid passenger cars, the respective market shares of which can be represented as γt,1 + γt,2 + γt,3 = 1
The results of this study showed that the consumption of gasoline for automobile use fluctuated considerably during fiscal 2000–2003, decreasing slightly in 2004 and markedly during fiscal 2005–2006

Summary

Introduction

In July 2001, the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI), the Ministry of the Environment (MOE), and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism (MLIT) jointly implemented the “Action Plan for the Development and Diffusion of Low-emission Vehicles”. The action plan promotes the use of cars powered by natural gas (CNG), electricity, methanol, and hybrid cars that have higher fuel efficiencies (METI 2011). The special measures adopted for calculating tax rates included the following: taxes were reduced for cars with low environmental loads (i.e., cars with higher fuel efficiencies and low gas emissions) and taxes were raised by approximately % for cars that were older than a specified number of years (13 years after registration for gasoline-powered cars and years for diesel-powered cars). A notable fact is that the Japanese gasoline consumption associated with private cars slightly increased by 0.4 % during the fiscal period 2001–2007 (METI 2010). The clarification of the responsible factors is crucial in understanding why the action plan stated above has not contributed to decreasing gasoline consumption and designing a more effective energy policy

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion