Modelling and Analysis of China’s Passenger Car Fuel Consumption up to 2030

Abstract

In this study, we present an analysis of future gasoline supply and consumption gap and a projection to future passenger car fuel consumption. In the first part, we study the gasoline and diesel supply from the refining sector in China. A virtual refinery model is established to analyze the productivity of gasoline and diesel. Based on the calculation of the model, we get minimum and maximum production of gasoline and diesel and the flexibility between them. In the second part, we study the ownership and sales of passenger car in China. A model for different types of passenger cars is established and many factors affecting the ownership are analyzed separately. Vehicle age distribution in passenger car is also taken into consideration. In the third part, alternative fuels and technologies for vehicles are studied. Fuel ethanol, natural gas, EV and PHEV are analyzed in detail. In the last part, we analyze the actual gasoline consumption rate and the average annual mileage of passenger car. Then we make an assumption as a basic scenario. Gasoline consumption in passenger car sector and other sectors in the future are calculated based on the assumption above. Gasoline consumption and supply are compared and a major finding is that the gasoline supply cannot meet the consumption since 2022 in basic scenario. To meet this gap, different measures in technology and policy which reducing gasoline consumption in passenger car sector are considered and analyzed.