Accepting Timor Leste as an ASEAN member: an act of compassion or a geopolitical necessity?

Abstract

Timor Leste has been accepted “in principle” as the 11th ASEAN country in 2022, after 11 years of waiting.  The 11-year delay is said to be due to skepticism from some Southeast Asian countries, which consider Timor-Leste an “uncertain situation”.  Many domestic issues, influenced by the international context, have added to this situation. These include concerns about the consolidation of democratic state institutions in Timor-Leste, as well as the prospects for its short-term economy and internal security. Existing solely on the decline of the Petroleum Fund, which is expected to disappear within a decade, the country risks falling into a budget abyss.  As the smallest economy in the entire Southeast Asia region, with the second lowest GDP per capita and high poverty and unemployment rates, Timor Leste has a long way to go to catch up with the remaining members of ASEAN.  Despite these economic shortcomings, ASEAN still decided to accept Timor Leste as a new member.  This article aims to explain Timor-Leste's credibility in meeting the political, economic and socio-cultural security criteria of the ASEAN pillars. It tries to explain why ASEAN accepted Timor-Leste. Using qualitative methods, the article shows that ASEAN member states have a real incentive to help Timor catch up with other members to avoid its economic collapse.  However, the growing geopolitical rivalry between China and the US in the region is perhaps the best explanation for ASEAN's eventual desire to accept Timor Leste's membership application.