Acceleration or Multiplication? Examples of the Oryol, Kursk, Bryansk, Voronezh, Belgorod, Tambov and Lipetsk Regions

Abstract

Relevance. The article presents a statistical analysis between gross regional products and investments in fixed capital for the Orel, Kursk, Bryansk, Voronezh, Belgorod, Tambov and Lipetsk regions of the Russian Federation. Animation effects and acceleration effects are calculated with a yearly time lag. The gradation of areas was carried out according to the importance of accelerators and multipliers The purpose Investigation the statistical significance of the acceleration and multiplier approaches to the interaction between investment and GRP in seven regions of the Central Federal District. Objectives: calculate the Fisher index for 1995-2020; carry out a correlation analysis for the "long" time range; determine the statistical significance of the acceleration and multiplication hypotheses. Methodology. The article was prepared within the framework of the Keynesian macroeconomic paradigm, taking into account the temporary annual lag. Results. The statistical significance of the correlation analysis is greatest in the absence of any assumptions about the presence of a time lag in the effects of determining exogenous and endogenous parameters. Conclusions. In the Russian Federation, the regions of the Central Federal District, the Voronezh and Tambov regions, there is a stable multiplier effect of the direct impact of investments on economic growth. The highest degree of determination is observed in larger regions and agglomerations, including at the expense of the city of Moscow. Assuming the presence of a time lag, the multiplier effect in all analyzed subjects decreases, but remains statistically significant. This conclusion is somewhat different from the results obtained earlier on the data of a shorter time series. The effect of acceleration over the analyzed period, from 1999 to 2020, was observed to the greatest extent in the Kursk and Lipetsk regions.