Abstract
The Arctic Ocean’s Wandel Sea is the easternmost sector of the Last Ice Area, where thick, old sea ice is expected to endure longer than elsewhere. Nevertheless, in August 2020 the area experienced record-low sea ice concentration. Here we use satellite data and sea ice model experiments to determine what caused this record sea ice minimum. In our simulations there was a multi-year sea-ice thinning trend due to climate change. Natural climate variability expressed as wind-forced ice advection and subsequent melt added to this trend. In spring 2020, the Wandel Sea had a mixture of both thin and—unusual for recent years—thick ice, but this thick ice was not sufficiently widespread to prevent the summer sea ice concentration minimum. With continued thinning, more frequent low summer sea ice events are expected. We suggest that the Last Ice Area, an important refuge for ice-dependent species, is less resilient to warming than previously thought.
Highlights
The Arctic Ocean’s Wandel Sea is the easternmost sector of the Last Ice Area, where thick, old sea ice is expected to endure longer than elsewhere
We examine the interplay of weather- and climate change-driven changes in sea ice conditions and hypothesize about the potential short- and long-term implications for sea ice-associated species
Ocean-forced melting in this area that is traditionally covered by thick, compact ice is a key finding of this study
Summary
The Arctic Ocean’s Wandel Sea is the easternmost sector of the Last Ice Area, where thick, old sea ice is expected to endure longer than elsewhere. In August 2020, as the German Icebreaker Polarstern transited northward as part of the MOSAiC experiment, it followed a route across the Wandel Sea (WS) north of Greenland (Fig. 1a) This area is normally marked by compact, thick multiyear ice created by cold temperatures and onshore winds and currents[1] that stretches from the WS southwestward along the northern coast of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The first sign of change in the LIA emerged during the spring of 2018, when a large polynya formed in response to anomalous northward winds which drove sea ice away from the coast[9,10] These winds were so strong that model simulations indicated that the polynya would have developed even with the thicker ice that had been present there several decades ago[11]. Our focus is on the WS in the eastern LIA, the implications of this study may be relevant to the entire LIA region
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