Accelerated Life Test Model by Time-Varying Dependence for Rotary Lip Seals

Abstract

In this paper, a new accelerated life testing (ALT) model based on both failure physics and statistics is proposed for reliability analysis of rotary lip seals. The new model considers the dependence of different failure modes of rotary lip seals and characterizes the dependence by a time-varying copula function. The reliability function of the rotary lip seal is derived and the associated parameters in this model are estimated by Bayesian method. The proposed model is validated by experimental data from accelerated tests and the results show that the proposed model is accurate and effective. Ideas derived from this model can be applied to the ALT model development of some other mechanical components of which failure modes are s-dependent. The proposed parameter estimation algorithm can be also improved in our future work.