Accelerated growth rates of Norway spruce and European beech saplings from Europe's temperate primary forests are related to warmer conditions

Abstract

Global change outcomes for forests will be strongly influenced by the demography of juvenile trees. We used data from an extensive network of forest inventory plots in Europe to quantify relationships between climate factors and growth rates in sapling trees for two ecologically dominant species, Norway spruce and European beech. We fitted nonlinear regression models with annual radial growth measurements from ∼17,500 trees in primary forests to investigate the sensitivity of individuals to temperature and measures of water supply. We controlled for multiple, potentially confounding factors, including ontogeny, resource competition and the deposition of anthropogenic nitrogen and sulphur. The growth potential of spruce was markedly elevated relative to beech, reflecting species-specific relationships with environmental drivers. Declining water availability more strongly limited productivity in spruce, while beech was notably tolerant of observed levels of moisture limitation. Warming promoted growth in both species, but growing season temperatures that exceeded thermally optimum conditions constrained wood production. We identified long-term positive trends in reconstructed annual rates of juvenile tree growth since the early 19th century, likely driven by industrial-era warming. However, our findings suggest that sustained warming and more prevalent future drought may ultimately inhibit growth due to thermal thresholds and a differential tolerance of water stress. Consequently, global change factors may be expected to affect future species abundance patterns, biomass production, and the carbon sink capacity of forests in Europe.